Beacon Lesson Plan Library

Probability and Odds

Johnny Wolfe
Santa Rosa District Schools

Description

Students determine the probability and odds for various events.

Standards

Florida Sunshine State Standards
MA.E.1.4.1
Interprets data that has been collected, organized, and displayed in charts, tables, plots.

MA.E.2.4.2
Determines the probability for simple and compound events as well as independent and dependent events.

Florida Process Standards
Numeric Problem Solvers
03 Florida students use numeric operations and concepts to describe, analyze, communicate, synthesize numeric data, and to identify and solve problems.

Materials

- Overhead transparencies (if examples are to be worked on overhead) for Probability and Odds (See Attached File)
- Marking pens (for overhead)
- Probability and Odds Examples (See Attached File)
- Probability and Odds Worksheet (See Attached File)
- Probability and Odds Checklist (See Attached File)

Preparations

1. Prepare transparencies (if teacher uses overhead for examples) for Probability and Odds Examples. (See Attached File)
2. Have marking pens (for overhead).
3. Have Probability and Odds Examples (See Attached File) prepared and ready to demonstrate to students.
4. Have enough copies of Probability and Odds Worksheet (See Attached File) for each student.
5. Have enough copies of Probability and Odds Checklist (See Attached File) for each student.

Procedures

Prior Knowledge: Students should be familiar with basic operation skills such as addition, subtraction, multiplication, division, exponents, fractions, decimals, area, distributive property, and multiplying binomials.
NOTE: This lesson does not address compound events or dependent events in MA.E.2.4.2. This lesson also does not address plots in MA.E.1.4.1

1. To help students understand the concept of probability, ask questions that require students to make educated guesses based on prior knowledge. (See #1 on Probability and Odds Examples) Answer student questions and comments.

2. Ask the students to come up with a definition of probability; you may have to help students put their thoughts into words. Many students have an idea of what probability is but have difficulty describing it. (See #2 on Probability and Odds Examples)

3. To test students' understanding of probability, probe their minds by giving them a situation where they must make a judgment based on probability. (See #3 on Probability and Odds Examples)

4. Ask students to name several areas in their lives that would involve probability. (See #4 on Probability and Odds Examples)

5. Work #5 Example. (See Probability and Odds Examples) Answer student questions and comments.

6. Work #6 Example. (See Probability and Odds Examples) Answer student questions and comments.

7. Work #7 Example. (See Probability and Odds Examples) Answer student questions and comments.

8. Work #8 Example. (See Probability and Odds Examples) Answer student questions and comments.

9. Discuss with the students what a probability of zero and one suggest. Also, introduce students to the idea that probability must lie in the range 0 <= P(event) <= 1. (See #9 on Probability and Odds Examples)

10. Give the students an example that uses the terms probability and odds. Ask the students to describe the differences between probability and odds. Help the students come up with a definition of odds. Make sure students understand that the probability of the successes plus the probability of the failures must equal 1. (See #10 on Probability and Odds Examples)

11. Work #11 Example. (See Probability and Odds Examples) Answer student questions and comments.

12. Work #12 Example. (See Probability and Odds Examples) Answer student questions and comments.

13. Work #13 Example. (See Probability and Odds Examples) Answer student questions and comments.

14. Work #14 Example. (See Probability and Odds Examples) Answer student questions and comments.

15. Distribute the Probability and Odds Worksheet. (See Attached File)

16. Distribute the Probability and Odds Checklist. (See Attached File) Describe what constitutes an A, B, C, D, and F in the Checklist.

17. The students write their responses on the worksheets.

18. The teacher moves from student to student, observing the students' work and lending assistance.

Assessments

The student worksheet is collected and scored according to the Probability and Odds Checklist. (See Attached File)

Extensions

Have students collect data from a school sporting event such as football--i.e., how many times the ball was run/passed, the types of plays that were executed on 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th downs. Then give the students a play situation and have them (based on their data) predict (probability and odds) what type of play the coach would have called.
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