Beacon Lesson Plan Library
What Are the Odds?
Alice Bobe
Bay District Schools
Description
Using the novel, Jim Ugly by Sid Fleischman, students conduct an experiment to test prediction of whether the odds were in favor of or against Jake finding his dad.
Standards
Florida Sunshine State Standards
MA.E.2.2.2
The student predicts the likelihood of simple events occurring.
Florida Process Standards
Information Managers
01 Florida students locate, comprehend, interpret, evaluate, maintain, and apply information, concepts, and ideas found in literature, the arts, symbols, recordings, video and other graphic displays, and computer files in order to perform tasks and/or for enjoyment.
Numeric Problem Solvers
03 Florida students use numeric operations and concepts to describe, analyze, communicate, synthesize numeric data, and to identify and solve problems.
Materials
- Copies of Jim Ugly, by Sid Fleischman, Dell Yearling Books, 1993, for each student
- Dice of two colors for each pair of students, with a bag or container
- Board with marker and eraser
- Internet access
Preparations
1. Obtain a novel, Jim Ugly, by Sid Fleischman for each student.
2. Read the novel prior to assigning to students.
3. Gather dice of two colors for each pair of students, with a bag or container.
4. Obtain a board with marker and eraser.
5. Gather paper and pencils.
6. Obtain access to Internet.
Procedures
After reading the book, Jim Ugly, by Sid Fleischman:
1. Ask students, "Do you think that Jake could have found his dad without the help of Jim Ugly?" Discuss possible answers.
2. Tell the students that they are going to do an experiment to find out whether the odds were in favor of or against Jake finding his dad.
3. Ask the students to make a prediction before doing this experiment. This may be done as a whole group or partners. Example: "Our prediction is that there will be more yes answers than no answers."
4. Pair students and give each group a pair of dice, one labeled "yes" (or you may use a color such as green) and the other labeled "no" (or the color red) in a bag or container.
5. Ask them to pull a die out of the bag or container twenty times and keep a running tally of the outcome each time. Return the die to the bag or container for each experiment.
6. Write on the board:
Green ( yes)........................................Red (no)
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___..................___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___..................___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
Ask, "What do the tallies tell you?" Discuss possible answers.
7. Find the odds in favor of Jake finding his dad by using this formula:
Number of green (yes) / Total number of tosses. Use class results, for example: 9/20
8. Find the odds against Jake finding his dad by using this formula:
Number of red (no) / Total number of tosses . Use class results, for example: 11/20.
9. Ask each partner/group to share their finding with the class and account for Jake's success on finding his dad using the formulas. Each group will give their results.
10. Ask the students to compare their results with each group. Discuss all outcomes in a whole group.
Assessments
Assess the final activity using the criteria in the checklist (see attached file).
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