Boy, it’s a great day!    
It looks like a perfect day for fishing.
Well, the weatherman said there’s a 50% chance of rain today.
What does that mean?
 

 

NA01064_.WMF (31814 bytes)

That means we take
our chances
if we go fishing.

Next Page

 








 

PE02397_.WMF (4492 bytes)I’m not exactly sure what the weatherman means by a 50% chance of rain. You will have to ask the weatherman about that.
DD00467_.WMF (24676 bytes)
But, I can help you get an idea of what chance means with my weather wheels.
Before I do that, what do you think chance means?
Type what you think chance means in the box. Previous Page |  Next Page








 


Chance looks at...
what will probably happen or what is likely to happen.

We need to know what will probably happen or what is likely to happen,
so we can make better decisions.

PE02279_.WMF (19674 bytes)

You mean like looking at the chance of rain so that we know
whether or not we should go fishing?

There you go. So, where have you heard about chance?
Type your anwer in the box.
  Previous Page |  Next Page

 








 


Sometimes, we just about know what will happen.

This weather wheel shows a 100% chance for sunny weather.

wpe1C.gif (4788 bytes)

Sunny weather is not just likely, but it's probable.
That means sunny weather is almost a sure thing!

  


If there is a 100% chance
for sunny weather,
what do you predict will happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
It will be rainy.
AG00433_.GIF (6386 bytes)
It will be sunny.
SY00639_.WMF (3924 bytes)
It will be cloudy.

Click on the picture to check.

Previous Page |  Next Page








 

My weather wheel can also help us see how to predict the likelihood of what might happen.

wpe1F.gif (5207 bytes)

This wheel shows a 50% chance of rain.
What is likely to happen...rainy weather or sunny weather?


What do you predict will happen?
NA01493_.WMF (2154 bytes) NA01488_.WMF (1596 bytes)
sunny weather rainy weather

Click to make your prediction.
Then go to the next page to learn more.

Previous Page |  Next Page

 

 







 

This weather wheel shows a
50% chance for rain.
But that is only half of the whole wheel.

wpe1E.gif (5207 bytes)

The rest of the wheel shows a
50% chance for sunny weather.

Oh, I see the wheel is in two equal parts. So, is that a 50-50 chance?

PE01863_.WMF (21950 bytes)

Will the weather be rainy or sunny?
What do you predict?
Type your prediction in the box.

Previous Page |  Next Page








 

One question at a time, please.
Yes, that's what a 50-50 chance means.
Maybe you have heard other ways to say...
a 50-50 chance.

equally likely
even chance
50% chance
1 out of 2 chance
wpe20.gif (925 bytes) of a chance

Click next to the ones that
you have heard before.

AN00779_.WMF (7582 bytes)

        Pretend there were just two kinds of fish in the sea. If there were equal numbers of both fish, you would have a 50-50 chance of catching one or the other.

Previous Page |  Next Page








 


So does a 50-50 chance mean the chances are even?

I'm was just getting to that! 
Yes, a 50-50 chance means...
the chances are even. It also means the two events are equally likely.

Equally likely means the results or how it turns out could go either way, right?
Yes, if two things are equally likely, it is hard to predict which one will happen.
It's like a 50-50 chance of rainy or sunny weather on the weather wheel.
The chances are evenly balanced.

AG00227_.GIF (7589 bytes)


Each of these events
is equally likely to happen.
That means the results can go either way.

What do you predict will happen?

BS00590_.WMF (15486 bytes)
tossing  heads

tossing tails
wpe1B.gif (1794 bytes)
spinning
      dark blue

spinning
      light blue

Click to make your prediction.
Click on each picture to check your prediction.

Previous Page |  Next Page

 








 

Sometimes things are NOT equally likely or probable.
Sometimes one event is more likely than another event.
That means it will probably happen.

wpe31.gif (5798 bytes)

This weather wheel shows a 20% chance of rainy weather. It also shows an 80% chance of sunny weather.
Click on the button to predict
what  will happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
Click on the picture to check
your prediction.

HINT: Remember on this wheel,
sunny weather is more likely.
See how it takes up a greater
part of the wheel.

Previous Page |  Next Page








 

Sometimes one thing is less likely to happen. That means it will probably not happen.

wpe30.gif (5798 bytes)

Look at this weather wheel again. It shows
a 20% chance of rainy weather.
It also shows an 80% chance of sunny weather.


On this weather wheel, rainy weather
is less likely to happen than sunny weather.
HINT: See how it takes up a
smaller part of the wheel.
Which is more likely to happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather
Which do you predict will happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather
Click to make your choice, then click
on the pictures to check your answers.

Previous Page |  Next Page

 



 

 

 

 


 


This weather wheel shows
a 30% chance of rainy weather.
It also shows a 70% chance of sunny weather.

wpe32.gif (5815 bytes)

 


Click a button to choose your answer,
then click on the picture to check.
Which is more likely to happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather
Which is less likely to happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather
Which do you predict will happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather

Previous Page |  Next Page

 




 

 

 

 


This weather wheel shows
a 40% chance of rainy weather.
It also shows a 60% chance of sunny weather.

wpe2E.gif (5815 bytes)

 


Click a button to choose your answer,
then click on the picture to check.
Which is more likely to happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather
Which is less likely to happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather
Which do you predict will happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather

Previous Page |  Next Page

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


This weather wheel shows a 60% chance of rainy weather and a 40% chance of sunny weather.

wpe2F.gif (5656 bytes)

As the chance for rain becomes more likely, what is the chance for sunny weather?

 


Click a button to choose your answer,
then click on the picture to check.
Which is more likely to happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather
Which is less likely to happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather
Which do you predict will happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather

Previous Page |  Next Page

 

 

 

 

 



 


This weather wheel shows
a 20% chance of sunny weather.
It also shows an 80% chance of rainy weather.

wpe2D.gif (5716 bytes)

 


Click a button to choose your answer,
then click on the picture to check.
Which is more likely to happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather
Which is less likely to happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather
Which do you predict will happen?
NA00386_.WMF (7382 bytes)
rainy
      weather
NA01680_.WMF (2974 bytes)
sunny
      weather

Previous Page |  Next Page

 







 

 

 


As an event is more likely, the chances increase for that event to occur compared to another event.
Yes, and if you use this information to predict, your predictions will be better than a wild guess!
Use the information on each weather wheel below to make better predictions. Click on the picture to check.

wpe24.gif (4529 bytes)

wpe23.gif (3922 bytes)

wpe22.gif (4333 bytes)

Rainy weather is
more likely than equally likely to
             less likely than
sunny weather.
Rainy weather is
more likely thanequally likely to
             less likely than
sunny weather.
Rainy weather is
more likely than equally likely to
             less likely than
sunny weather.  
Previous Page |  Next Page  

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

SL00765_.WMF (9004 bytes)
I am glad we took our chances and went fishing today.
Me, too! I caught a few fish.
Yeah, but the best thing is that now I know more about chance and how to make better predictions about what might happen.


AG00434_.GIF (2659 bytes)Speaking of what might happen, I see a black cloud coming this way. I think I feel a few drops of rain too.
What do you think the chances of rainy weather compared to sunny weather are now?
It must be close to a 100% chance for rain.  
I think so too. And that means it's time to go!

Previous Page |