Chances Are

Boy, it’s a great day!

It looks like a perfect day for fishing.

Well, the weatherman said there’s a 50% chance of rain today.

What does that mean?

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That means we take
our chances
if we go fishing.

I’m not exactly sure what the weatherman means by a 50% chance of rain. You will have to ask the weatherman about that.

But, I can help you get an idea of what chance means with my weather wheels.

Before I do that, what do you think chance means?

Type what you think chance means in the box.

Chance looks at...
what will probably happen or what is likely to happen.

We need to know what will probably happen or what is likely to happen,
so we can make better decisions.

You mean like looking at the chance of rain so that we know
whether or not we should go fishing?
There you go. So, where have you heard about chance?
Type your anwer in the box.
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Sometimes, we just about know what will happen.

This weather wheel shows a 100% chance for sunny weather.

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Sunny weather is not just likely, but it's probable.
That means sunny weather is almost a sure thing!

If there is a 100% chance
for sunny weather,
what do you predict will happen?

It will be rainy.

It will be sunny.

It will be cloudy.

Click on the picture to check.

My weather wheel can also help us see how to predict the likelihood of what might happen.

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This wheel shows a 50% chance of rain.
What is likely to happen...rainy weather or sunny weather?

What do you predict will happen?

sunny weather	rainy weather
Click to make your prediction. Then go to the next page to learn more.
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This weather wheel shows a
50% chance for rain.
But that is only half of the whole wheel.

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The rest of the wheel shows a
50% chance for sunny weather.

Oh, I see the wheel is in two equal parts. So, is that a 50-50 chance?

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Will the weather be rainy or sunny?
What do you predict?
Type your prediction in the box.

One question at a time, please.
Yes, that's what a 50-50 chance means.
Maybe you have heard other ways to say...
a 50-50 chance.

equally likely

even chance

50% chance

1 out of 2 chance

of a chance

Click next to the ones that
you have heard before.

Pretend there were just two kinds of fish in the sea. If there were equal numbers of both fish, you would have a 50-50 chance of catching one or the other.

So does a 50-50 chance mean the chances are even?

I'm was just getting to that!
Yes, a 50-50 chance means...
the chances are even. It also means the two events are equally likely.

Equally likely means the results or how it turns out could go either way, right?

Yes, if two things are equally likely, it is hard to predict which one will happen.

It's like a 50-50 chance of rainy or sunny weather on the weather wheel.
The chances are evenly balanced.

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Each of these events is equally likely to happen. That means the results can go either way.
What do you predict* will happen?*
tossing heads	tossing tails
spinning dark blue	spinning light blue
Click to make your prediction. Click on each picture to check your prediction.
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Sometimes things are NOT equally likely or probable.
Sometimes one event is more likely than another event.
That means it will probably happen.

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This weather wheel shows a 20% chance of rainy weather. It also shows an 80% chance of sunny weather.

Click on the button to predict
what will happen?

Click on the picture to check
your prediction.

HINT: Remember on this wheel,
sunny weather is more likely.
See how it takes up a greater
part of the wheel.

Sometimes one thing is less likely to happen. That means it will probably not happen.

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Look at this weather wheel again. It shows
a 20% chance of rainy weather.
It also shows an 80% chance of sunny weather.

On this weather wheel, rainy weather is less likely to happen than sunny weather. HINT: See how it takes up a smaller part of the wheel.
Which is more likely to happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
Which do you predict will happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
Click to make your choice, then click on the pictures to check your answers.
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This weather wheel shows
a 30% chance of rainy weather.
It also shows a 70% chance of sunny weather.

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Click a button to choose your answer, then click on the picture to check.
Which is more likely to happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
Which is less likely to happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
Which do you predict will happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
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This weather wheel shows
a 40% chance of rainy weather.
It also shows a 60% chance of sunny weather.

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Click a button to choose your answer, then click on the picture to check.
Which is more likely to happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
Which is less likely to happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
Which do you predict will happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
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This weather wheel shows a 60% chance of rainy weather and a 40% chance of sunny weather.

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As the chance for rain becomes more likely, what is the chance for sunny weather?

Click a button to choose your answer, then click on the picture to check.
Which is more likely to happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
Which is less likely to happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
Which do you predict will happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
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This weather wheel shows
a 20% chance of sunny weather.
It also shows an 80% chance of rainy weather.

wpe2D.gif (5716 bytes)

Click a button to choose your answer, then click on the picture to check.
Which is more likely to happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
Which is less likely to happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
Which do you predict will happen?
rainy weather	sunny weather
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As an event is more likely, the chances increase for that event to occur compared to another event. Yes, and if you use this information to predict, your predictions will be better than a wild guess!
Use the information on each weather wheel below to make better predictions. Click on the picture to check.

Rainy weather is more likely than equally likely to less likely than sunny weather.	Rainy weather is more likely thanequally likely to less likely than sunny weather.	Rainy weather is more likely than equally likely to less likely than sunny weather. \|

I am glad we took our chances and went fishing today.

Me, too! I caught a few fish.

Yeah, but the best thing is that now I know more about chance and how to make better predictions about what might happen.

Speaking of what might happen, I see a black cloud coming this way. I think I feel a few drops of rain too.

What do you think the chances of rainy weather compared to sunny weather are now?

It must be close to a 100% chance for rain.

I think so too. And that means it's time to go!