Hey! Do you remember when we played that game, Pin the Tail on the Tiger at the birthday party? Yeah, that was fun and I learned                                        more about probability. Me too! But now I'm confused. You're lyin'! No, I'm not, I'm Tiger. Can you help me answer a few questions I have about probability?

probability,
that's my favorite subject!

 Well, I played the game again and I didn't get the same results. The number 2 die won my game. The number 3 die won my game. Did anyone out there get different results? no yes Which number won your game? 1 2 3 4 5 6 Of course, probably everyone                                       got different results. Why does that happen?

 Why do you think each time the game is played, there are different results?

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 I think it has to do with likelihood. Am I right?                                                               I think my funny dice can help you with this.                                                               See what you think... I have three funny dice. Here is what each die has on its six sides. How many chances do you have to roll a 1 on this die? 1 side has one dot out of 6 sides in all How many chances do you have to roll a 1 on this die? 1 3 6 7 sides have one dot out of 2 3 6 7 sides in all How many chances do you have to roll a 1 on this die? 0 1 5 6 sides have one dot out of 1 2 5 6 sides in all
 Okay, I count the number of sides that have the possibility I want out of the total number of possibilities. Is that right?

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 You are thinking! Now let's look at a standard die. Remember you are looking for the number of chances you have of rolling one result out of all of the possible results.
 The number of a possibility out of all the possibilities 1 chance out of 6 possibilities 1 2 3 4 5 6 chance out of 0 1 3 6 chance out of 0 1 4 6 chance out of 0 1 5 6 chance out of 0 1 2 6 chance out of

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 So, that is why mathematicians say the probability of rolling any one number on a die is a or 1 out of 6 probability Here is what that means... When you roll a die, there is  one chance of rolling any         one result out of the total six possibilities.

 probability is shown for each number on this circle graph. What do you notice about the size of each piece? They are all the equal in size. They are unequal in size. If each number on the die has a 1 out of 6 probability, what is the likelihood of rolling any one number compared to another? LESS LIKELY than other numbers EQUALLY LIKELY as the other numbers MORE LIKELY than other numbers   |

 Here is how a circle graph works to show probability... The circle graph shows a whole circle cut into parts. The whole circle stands for... the total Probability of WINS when you roll a die. To count the total number of possibilities when rolling a die, count the number of pieces on the circle graph. Oh, now I get it! The total number of possibilities equals the  whole circle graph.
 Use the circle graph to find the possibilities when rolling a die. What are the total number of possibilities?            |

 Good for you! The pieces of                      the circle graph show even                    more about probability... The pieces of the circle graph show the parts of the whole or each different possibility when rolling a die. How do you find the probability of a number on the circle graph? Here's how... 1. Look at the circle graph KEY. 2. Find the  next to the color . 3. Find the color  on the circle graph. 4. The number next to the color says... or 1 out of 6 probability of rolling a .
 What is the probability of rolling a ? 1/2 or 1 out of 2 probability 1/3 or 1 out of 3 probability 1/4 or 1 out of 4 probability 1/6 or 1 out of 6 probability What is the probability of rolling a ? 1/2 or 1 out of 2 probability 1/3 or 1 out of 3 probability 1/4 or 1 out of 4 probability 1/6 or 1 out of 6 probability                |

 If there is a 1 out of 6 probability of rolling any number on a die, then how did the "win" our game? That's a good question! If the real probability of rolling any number on a die is 1 out of 6 probability, all of the numbers should win. Shouldn't they? You are really thinking now. Let's look at the results of our game on this circle graph.
 Click in the boxes to select the sets of numbers that were equally likely in our game. 1, 2 1, 3 1, 4 1, 5            1, 2, 3 2, 4, 5 3, 5, 6 4, 5, 6 |

 If probability was exact, the likelihood of rolling any number in our game would be equally likely, but that didn't happen. Let's look at this circle graph.  It shows the results     for rolling each number in our game.
 The circle graph shows that the probability of rolling a was a or 5 out of 30 probability. What was the probability of rolling a 2? 4/30 or 4 out of 30 probability 5/30 or 5 out of 30 probabilty 6/30 or 6 out of 30 probability 7/30 or 7 out of 30 probability What was the probability of rolling a 3? 4/30 or 4 out of 30 probability 5/50 or 5 out of 30 probability 6/30 or 6 out of 30 probability 7/30 or 7 out of 30 probability What was the probability of rolling a 4? 4/30 or 4 out of 30 probability 5/30 or 5 out of 30 probability 6/30 or 6 out of 30 probability 7/30 or 7 out of 30 probability

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 You are getting it. Keep going!
 Look at the circle graph and key and then click to answer these questions. What was the probability of rolling a 5? 4/30 or 4 out of 30 probability 5/30 or 5 out of 30 probability 6/30 or 6 out of 30 probability 7/30 or 7 out of 30 probability What was the probability of rolling a 6? 4/30 or 4 out of 30 probability 5/30 or 5 out of 30 probability 6/30 or 6 out of 30 probability 7/30 or 7 out of 30 probability This probability stuff is really starting to jingle.

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 Here is the circle graph that shows the results from our game where we rolled the die 30 times. Here is the circle graph that shows what mathematicians say is likely to happen or the probability of rolling any one number. Did our experiment exactly match the probability predicted by mathematicians? yes no almost

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 The results of our game did not exactly match the probability of the mathematicians. What does this mean? Did we do something wrong? Explain what you think happened in your own words. Remember, probability is not                exact.   The more games you play,                the closer the die rolls would come                 to the mathematician's                             probability. Okay, so let's play the game 300 more times.
 You're lyin'. No, I'm not, I'm Tiger! We don't have to play right now. We can play later. Besides, it's time for my catnap.

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